|
|
Prediction for CME (2024-07-01T11:36:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2024-07-01T11:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31787/-1 CME Note: CME visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely an M1.2 flare peaking at 2024-07-01T11:02Z from AR 3730 (approx. S19W37). The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131, the ejection of material following the flare can be seen in SDO AIA 171/193/304, and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. || Possible arrival signature: Sudden jump in B-total from 6nT to 11nT, and is sustained between 10nT to 11nT for several hours. Corresponding rotation of the B-field components is observed. There is no significant increase in temperature until about 2024-07-05T08:20Z when the temperature suddenly increases from 50 K to about 90 K. The density decreases very suddenly at 03:23Z, which is indicative of a possible flux rope. Prior to this drop, the density had gradually reached a peak value of 19.29 p/cc, which is possibly attributable to the arrival of a higher density stream, which was indicated in ENLIL simulations to arrive early on July 5th. The source of this arrival may possibly be a cursory glancing blow from CME:2024-07-01T11:36Z. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-05T03:11Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-05T13:03Z Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0 Prediction Method: Average of all Methods Prediction Method Note: This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 33.98 hour(s) Difference: -9.87 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-07-03T17:12Z |
|
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers. Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement |